Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69e0…b3db world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$1
other 7% $0
politics 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 +78.5% +61.5% 26% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 19 +78.5% +61.5% 26% 5% -9.7%
all 30 +50.6% +36.3% 43% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.3% 10% -9.5%
10% +23.2% 3% -18.2%
15% +11.3% 3% -26.1%
20% +0.4% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +99% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage459d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 54¢ $38 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $91 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $76 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9 +$2 +20%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $79 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Dec 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 28 $2 $0 +22%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 22 $1 $0 -17%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 22 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $12 $0 -1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $38 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $31 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 38¢ $24 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 38¢ $7 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $42 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $42 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $7 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $25 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $20 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $5 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $31 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $31 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $9 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $29 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $7 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $38 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.34 · official $38.34 (match) · 102 history records