Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:00:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69dc…0cf5 crypto 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,442 (+9%) realized +$3,178 · open +$264
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate67%155W / 77L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day168.3pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3,539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$464
7 days−$4
14 days+$17
30 days+$2,347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$2,331
sports 39% −$7
other 8% +$214
tech 1% +$79
world 0% +$4
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -6.6% -15.5% 69% 51% -9.5%
≤30d 232 -6.0% -14.9% 67% 35% -4.1%
≤90d 232 -6.0% -14.9% 67% 35% -4.1%
all 232 -6.0% -14.9% 67% 35% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 35% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 22% -13.3%
15% -30.5% 15% -21.6%
20% -37.3% 9% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$68 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$3,539
Realized+$3,178
Unrealized+$264
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses155 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions33
Markets (closed)232 / 261
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day168.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 75¢ 90¢ $750 $905 +$155 (+21%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $920 $905 −$15 (-2%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $625 $627 +$2 (+0%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $247 $283 +$36 (+15%)
Concrete FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $231 $229 −$2 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 84¢ 94¢ $107 $119 +$12 (+11%)
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 28¢ $67 $91 +$24 (+36%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? No 95¢ 96¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 6¢ 18¢ $22 $65 +$43 (+192%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by June 30? No 75¢ 84¢ $41 $46 +$5 (+11%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by June 30? No 87¢ 70¢ $44 $36 −$8 (-19%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+8%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 97¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+42%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by June 30? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-9%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 66¢ 88¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 60¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Printr FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 18¢ 29¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+65%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 19¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+426%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+38%)
3Jane FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 53¢ 23¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
SlingshotDAO FDV above $8M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 56¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $117 +$18 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $168 +$12 +7%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 14 $49 +$21 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $124 +$11 +9%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $186 +$21 +11%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $58 +$22 +37%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $170 +$65 +38%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $79 +$21 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$3 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $175 −$130 -74%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $427 +$83 +19%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $237 +$68 +28%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $207 +$33 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $201 +$39 +19%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $267 +$68 +26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $540 +$45 +8%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $28 +$7 +23%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $26 +$14 +52%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $273 +$66 +24%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$17 -62%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $241 +$44 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $106 −$105 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $245 −$244 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$1 +5%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $63 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $162 +$23 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $148 +$12 +8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $422 +$53 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $119 +$16 +13%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$5 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $7 +$3 +45%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 1h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 19¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 88¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 98¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 96¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 97¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 97¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 98¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 89¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 88¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 89¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 95¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 97¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 97¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 88¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 97¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 88¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 95¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 94¢ $9 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 89¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 88¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 90¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 88¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 89¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 90¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 89¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 89¢ $4 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,539.04 · official $3,536.46 (match) · 3500 history records