Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x69da…0637 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$6
other 30% +$2
tech 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +3.1% -6.7% 62% 12% -7.5%
≤90d 9 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 11% -7.7%
all 43 +5.8% -4.3% 53% 12% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 12% -8.4%
10% -13.4% 5% -17.1%
15% -21.8% 5% -25.1%
20% -29.5% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.38 per $1 lost it wins $4.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage449d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $34 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $9 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $38 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $23 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 25 $0 $0 +150%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 04 $1 $0 -12%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? May 23 $1 $0 +13%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 21 $13 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $5 $0 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 07 $11 +$1 +11%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 02 $13 $0 -1%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $34 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $6 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $26 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $6 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $28 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $17 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $19 23d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $1 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $4 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $32 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $13 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $20 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.55 · official $35.55 (match) · 138 history records