Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69d7…c25c crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-7%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days+$15
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$34
sports 13% −$27
economics 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -60.9% -64.6% 25% 25% -28.8%
≤30d 41 -15.0% -23.1% 46% 39% -10.2%
≤90d 53 -19.1% -26.8% 40% 34% -23.7%
all 53 -19.1% -26.8% 40% 34% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 34% -23.7%
10% -33.8% 30% -31.0%
15% -40.2% 25% -37.7%
20% -46.0% 17% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage49d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$9 +60%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 05 $16 +$65 +406%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 05 $6 +$12 +196%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$2 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 25-31? Jun 01 $4 +$2 +40%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? May 30 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 28 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 27? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 May 18-24? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? May 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 18-24? May 25 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 25 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $2 +$5 +252%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $4 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19? May 20 $2 $0 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 18? May 19 $7 −$2 -29%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? May 18 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 17? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 16? May 17 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 11-17? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 10? May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 11? May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 11? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 10? May 11 $7 +$17 +249%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 10? May 10 $4 −$1 -35%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on May 10? May 10 $17 −$4 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 23h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Under $7 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $10 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $19 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? SELL No 79¢ $79 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? SELL No 79¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? SELL No 55¢ $0 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? SELL No 54¢ $19 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 17¢ $3 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 17¢ $3 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes $4 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes $4 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes $4 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? BUY No 14¢ $5 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? BUY No 15¢ $5 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? BUY No 15¢ $5 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? BUY No 79¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records