Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69d6…8b20 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,815 (-40%) realized −$1,778 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$126
14 days−$1,847
30 days−$1,866
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$2,042
sports 22% +$157
crypto 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +10.9% +0.4% 50% 33% -3.4%
≤30d 42 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 33% -49.4%
≤90d 42 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 33% -49.4%
all 42 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 33% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 33% -49.4%
10% -35.0% 31% -54.2%
15% -41.3% 24% -58.6%
20% -47.1% 12% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$104 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized−$1,778
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage16d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 48¢ $200 $128 −$72 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $153 +$158 +103%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$12 -40%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $215 +$535 +249%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $603 −$600 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $503 +$51 +10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$17 -34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $78 −$76 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $201 −$120 -60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $98 −$97 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $247 −$244 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $355 −$251 -70%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$6 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $90 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 83¢ $310 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $749 25h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $215 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $603 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $553 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 91¢ $25 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $20 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 37¢ $34 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $97 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 9d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $99 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $78 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $81 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $201 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.70 · official $262.70 (match) · 84 history records