Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69d6…ad65 weather 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%162W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% +$3
world 7% −$23
other 4% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 31 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 88 -1.0% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.8%
all 163 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$24 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses162 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage183d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 30? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 26? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 23? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 22? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29? Apr 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 27? Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on April 27? Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26? Apr 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on April 25? Apr 25 $23 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on April 24? Apr 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on April 23? Apr 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 22? Apr 22 $23 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on April 21? Apr 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 20 Apr 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 20? Apr 21 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $7 32h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.27 · official $7.27 (match) · 327 history records