Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x69d6…9d65
other · 48 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$11 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage465d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 82¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 +$2 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $43 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $91 +$3 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $106 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 24 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $16 $0 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 08 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? Apr 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? Apr 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 28 $1 $0 -11%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $16 +$1 +8%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? Mar 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $14 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday? Mar 11 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$7
other 26% +$2
politics 12% +$1
crypto 7% $0
weather 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $48 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $3 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $28 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $21 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $17 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $27 37h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $44 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 88¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 88¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 84¢ $26 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 84¢ $16 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $14 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $3 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $42 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $44 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 89¢ $31 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $41 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $44 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $39 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $39 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 9 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 9 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 0% -8.1%
all 47 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -8.5%
10% -19.7% 0% -17.2%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records