Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x69d6…a279 politics 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$5
other 21% −$4
sports 19% −$5
crypto 16% −$3
world 12% −$2
economics 7% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$804) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage87d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? Jun 27 $61 $0 -0%
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $975 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $1,788 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 27 $1,006 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $982 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $1,010 −$3 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in June? Jun 26 $1,056 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Croatia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $755 −$1 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? May 14 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 May 13 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? May 12 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 11 $176 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? Apr 01 $65 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $61 4m
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 15m
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 24m
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 37m
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,002 47m
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 56m
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $968 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $687 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $287 1h
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $975 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 16h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 16h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 16h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $960 16h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 16h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $27 17h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $729 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $38 17h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $252 17h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $982 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $515 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $493 34h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 34h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $939 35h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records