Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

69 0x69d5…83ba other 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$72 (+22%) realized +$64 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+6.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+17.8%	+6.5%	43%	43%	+12.3%
≤30d	7	+17.8%	+6.5%	43%	43%	+12.3%
≤90d	7	+17.8%	+6.5%	43%	43%	+12.3%
all	7	+17.8%	+6.5%	43%	43%	+12.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.5%	43%	+12.3%
10%	-3.7%	43%	+1.5%
15%	-13.0%	43%	-8.3%
20%	-21.5%	43%	-17.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$57 vs −$27 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$78

Realized+$64

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$50	$57	+$7 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	11¢	$10	$13	+$3 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	7¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$112	+$108	+97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$5	+$13	+262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$31	+$50	+165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 11	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 11	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 11	$51	−$50	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$220	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$81	5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$21	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	50¢	$112	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$31	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.58 · official $77.47 (match) · 18 history records