Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x69d0…7d5b politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$434per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$6
culture 12% −$2
crypto 11% −$1
world 11% −$1
other 5% −$1
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 20 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,078) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage91d
Avg bet$434
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 24 $1,206 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el Jun 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 23 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $1,146 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Apr 21 $140 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference? Apr 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? Apr 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebe Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 25 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,079 1h
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 1h
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,205 2h
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,188 2h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 2h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 3h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 3h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $73 24h
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el SELL No 100¢ $55 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $17 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $28 25h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,066 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $29 25h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 25h
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el BUY No 100¢ $32 25h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 26h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 26h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 26h
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el BUY No 100¢ $23 26h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 26h
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,169 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 45h
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,112 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $17 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records