Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
69 0x69cc…5998 sports 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+16%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%33W / 41L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$17
other 12% −$1
crypto 12% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +122.5% +101.3% 75% 75% +133.4%
≤30d 4 +122.5% +101.3% 75% 75% +133.4%
≤90d 4 +122.5% +101.3% 75% 75% +133.4%
all 74 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 45% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 45% +4.7%
10% -21.1% 43% -5.3%
15% -28.7% 43% -14.4%
20% -35.7% 41% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +158% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage347d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$17 +342%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +178%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. 76ers Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $2 +$2 +79%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $3 +$2 +75%
Steelers vs. Bengals Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Tigers vs. Mariners Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Lions vs. Chiefs Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Dolphins vs. Browns Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 02 $2 +$3 +160%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 01 $5 +$4 +75%
Rams vs. Jaguars Oct 30 $1 +$1 +64%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 12 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 10 $6 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockies vs. Mariners Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Twins vs. Rockies Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rays vs. Orioles Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Giants vs. Braves Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Astros vs. Mariners Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockies vs. Orioles Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Marlins vs. Phillies Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
White Sox vs. Yankees Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Tigers vs. Rangers Sep 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Sep 26 $1 +$1 +67%
Mets vs. Cubs Sep 26 $1 +$1 +92%
Mariners vs. Angels Jul 27 $1 +$1 +79%
Guardians vs. Royals Jul 27 $1 +$1 +117%
Marlins vs. Brewers Jul 27 $1 +$1 +144%
Padres vs. Marlins Jul 23 $1 +$1 +75%
Tigers vs. Pirates Jul 23 $1 +$1 +117%
Cardinals vs. Rockies Jul 23 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Jul 14 $1 +$2 +233%
Phillies vs. Padres Jul 14 $1 +$1 +82%
Marlins vs. Orioles Jul 14 $1 +$1 +127%
Mariners vs. Tigers Jul 14 $1 +$1 +133%
Pirates vs. Twins Jul 14 $1 +$1 +138%
Phillies vs. Padres Jul 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Athletics Jul 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Rangers vs. Astros Jul 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $23 39h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 2d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 36¢ $1 100d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No $1 108d
Heat vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 46¢ $1 137d
Kings vs. 76ers BUY Kings 23¢ $1 137d
Pistons vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 31¢ $1 140d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 141d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 56¢ $2 143d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 34¢ $1 143d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 146d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 146d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Dodgers 29¢ $1 226d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Dodgers 57¢ $1 227d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 227d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Dodgers 57¢ $5 228d
Lions vs. Chiefs BUY Lions 43¢ $1 246d
Dolphins vs. Browns BUY Dolphins 41¢ $1 246d
Rams vs. Jaguars BUY Rams 61¢ $1 246d
Steelers vs. Bengals BUY Steelers 72¢ $1 246d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 249d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 249d
Tigers vs. Mariners BUY Tigers 53¢ $1 249d
Cubs vs. Brewers BUY Brewers 54¢ $1 249d
Marlins vs. Phillies BUY Marlins 31¢ $1 263d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.63 · official $6.63 (match) · 153 history records