Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69cb…2455 crypto 1784 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$362 (+2%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%1707W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$443
7 days−$418
14 days−$265
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 458 -9.8% -18.4% 85% 1% -18.2%
≤30d 1564 -1.8% -11.1% 93% 1% -11.0%
≤90d 1828 -1.6% -10.9% 93% 1% -10.8%
all 1828 -1.6% -10.9% 93% 1% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 1% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1707 / 121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1828 / 1784
History coverage52d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1828 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$9 -375%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$8 -338%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$9 -359%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$12 -106%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records