Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
69 0x69c9…3b29 world 400 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$5,470 (+3%) realized +$9,363 · open −$2,192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate62%222W / 134L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$15,552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$700
7 days−$570
14 days+$222
30 days+$898
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$543
politics 24% +$7,340
other 17% +$961
sports 3% −$1,325
finance 1% +$310
tech 1% −$305
weather 0% −$289
crypto 0% −$60
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.1% -12.4% 69% 31% -13.5%
≤30d 188 +3.9% -6.0% 65% 22% -8.2%
≤90d 356 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 28% -4.0%
all 356 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 28% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 28% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 17% -13.2%
15% -26.5% 12% -21.6%
20% -33.7% 8% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$95 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$15,552
Realized+$9,363
Unrealized−$2,192
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses222 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions44
Markets (closed)356 / 400
History coverage74d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 82¢ 80¢ $3,020 $2,949 −$71 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $2,748 $2,928 +$180 (+7%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 78¢ 76¢ $993 $980 −$13 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $850 $943 +$93 (+11%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 40¢ $732 $741 +$9 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $605 $643 +$38 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 92¢ $461 $601 +$140 (+30%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $1,165 $598 −$567 (-49%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 19¢ $1,851 $402 −$1,449 (-78%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $375 $397 +$22 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 50¢ 66¢ $265 $350 +$85 (+32%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $300 $318 +$18 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 86¢ 100¢ $240 $280 +$40 (+17%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $240 $245 +$5 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $229 $239 +$10 (+5%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $130 $236 +$106 (+82%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $160 $195 +$35 (+22%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 68¢ 71¢ $160 $167 +$7 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 92¢ 98¢ $150 $159 +$9 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 13¢ $60 $126 +$66 (+109%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 72¢ 26¢ $330 $116 −$214 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $320 −$222 -69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $280 +$95 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $921 −$179 -20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,115 −$796 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5,787 +$374 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $80 +$3 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 13 $550 +$25 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $400 +$6 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $200 +$67 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $507 −$209 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $540 +$51 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 09 $51 +$21 +42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $150 −$18 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $420 +$58 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $600 +$16 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,151 +$139 +12%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, Jun 07 $1,200 +$8 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $250 +$8 +3%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $100 +$14 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $290 +$16 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $376 +$27 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June Jun 04 $1,101 +$11 +1%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 02 $20 +$18 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $50 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 02 $152 +$4 +3%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 01 $534 −$532 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 01 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $150 +$10 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 01 $141 −$89 -63%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$8 +17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $210 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,944 +$1,090 +22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2,242 +$317 +14%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $610 +$7 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $180 +$29 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 −$9 -8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $217 +$21 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $683 +$178 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 94¢ $50 22m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 22m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 23m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $61 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 24m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 25m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $50 25m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $130 59m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $56 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $40 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $292 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $400 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 19¢ $286 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,374 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $83 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $99 37h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $100 41h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $50 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,551.66 · official $15,551.66 (match) · 2404 history records