Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x69c8…c372 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+4%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$67
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$11
world 3% +$2
sports 2% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -19.6% -27.3% 64% 64% -24.8%
≤30d 17 +9.4% -1.0% 71% 71% -5.9%
≤90d 17 +9.4% -1.0% 71% 71% -5.9%
all 17 +9.4% -1.0% 71% 71% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 71% -5.9%
10% -10.5% 47% -14.9%
15% -19.1% 35% -23.1%
20% -27.1% 18% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage9d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 87¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$19 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $20 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 46¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $20 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $20 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $30 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.06 · official $59.64 (match) · 33 history records