Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69c2…4025 other 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%25W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$8
sports 25% −$10
politics 22% −$9
crypto 12% −$6
economics 6% −$2
culture 4% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 44 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 170 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses25 / 145
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage170d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $485 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 17 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 16 $150 −$2 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 15 $40 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 13 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $318 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $353 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $75 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $932 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 31 $56 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 30 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 30 $445 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 29 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 29 $144 −$3 -2%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $144 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $147 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $59 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $59 9h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $61 13d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $62 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $53 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $54 25d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $48 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $48 33d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $47 43d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 44d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $54 71d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $55 71d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $56 71d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $56 71d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 71d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 95¢ $58 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 98¢ $59 72d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $62 72d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 72d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 72d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $54 72d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $47 72d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $41 72d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $7 72d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $61 72d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $61 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $44 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $13 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $31 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 657 history records