Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69c1…9bd6 other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$22
politics 27% −$14
sports 13% +$35
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 141 +0.3% -9.2% 9% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×10.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)141 / 145
History coverage137d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $205 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $268 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $434 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $497 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $204 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $278 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $195 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $272 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $422 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 29 $267 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $222 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $212 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $250 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $288 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $258 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $492 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $258 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $279 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $225 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $266 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $267 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $226 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $463 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $422 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 36d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 38d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $257 41d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $257 48d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 48d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 49d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 49d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 49d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $217 49d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $217 49d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 51d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 51d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $248 51d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $248 52d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $202 52d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $202 52d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $204 52d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $204 52d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $213 52d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $213 53d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $214 53d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $214 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.98 · official $127.98 (match) · 422 history records