Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69bf…0c5d sports 449 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$34,042 (+7%) realized +$34,842 · open −$800
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%237W / 337L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,137per market
Trades / day53.9pace
Fees−$6,406est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$12,439
other 0% −$432
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -95.1% -95.6% 2% 2% -97.0%
≤30d 313 -36.1% -42.2% 34% 32% -24.7%
≤90d 574 -20.0% -27.6% 41% 40% -16.0%
all 574 -20.0% -27.6% 41% 40% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 40% -16.0%
10% -34.5% 35% -24.1%
15% ← realistic here -40.8% 30% -31.4%
20% -46.6% 27% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,185) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$775 vs −$656 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$34,842
Unrealized−$800
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses237 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$6,406
Open positions1
Markets (closed)574 / 449
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$1,137
Trades / day53.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 574 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 58¢ 0¢ $800 $1 −$800 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 330 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Bruins vs. Lightning Jun 18 $240 −$240 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $827 −$827 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $814 −$814 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $296 −$296 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 18 $600 −$600 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $220 −$220 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $902 −$902 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 18 $226 −$226 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $231 −$231 -100%
San Luis Potosi: Matias Soto vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 18 $294 −$294 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - DreamLeague South Amer Jun 18 $280 −$280 -100%
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 18 $351 −$351 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $230 −$230 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $451 −$451 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $727 −$727 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,254 −$1,254 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $518 −$518 -100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 18 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $600 −$554 -92%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $393 −$393 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $429 −$429 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $800 −$800 -100%
Miyazaki: Liam Broady vs Blake Ellis Jun 18 $195 −$195 -100%
Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $463 −$463 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 18 $221 −$221 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $983 −$983 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $306 −$306 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe C Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Jun 18 $396 −$396 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $433 −$433 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 18 $1,480 −$1,480 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 36¢ $68 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 61¢ $741 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $809 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $146 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Estar Backs 44¢ $19 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 100¢ $117 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $275 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $154 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 49¢ $21 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 48¢ $43 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 48¢ $13 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $7 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $629 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 61¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 61¢ $6 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 61¢ $60 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 61¢ $50 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 56¢ $63 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 41¢ $96 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 41¢ $39 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 72¢ $107 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 72¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 62¢ $33 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 62¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.69 (match) · 3500 history records