Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

69 0x69be…3ac4 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$81 (-4%) realized +$31 · open −$112

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$210per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$1,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-28.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-21.3%	-28.8%	60%	40%	-3.4%
≤30d	5	-21.3%	-28.8%	60%	40%	-3.4%
≤90d	5	-21.3%	-28.8%	60%	40%	-3.4%
all	5	-21.3%	-28.8%	60%	40%	-3.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.8%	40%	-3.4%
10%	-35.6%	40%	-12.7%
15%	-41.8%	40%	-21.1%
20%	-47.5%	0%	-28.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 89% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$38 vs −$39 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.45 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$1,631

Realized+$31

Unrealized−$112

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions6

Markets (closed)5 / 11

History coverage5d

Avg bet$210

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$1,202	$1,119	−$83 (-7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$179	$178	−$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$113	$129	+$16 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	13¢	$119	$93	−$26 (-22%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$90	$75	−$15 (-17%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$40	$37	−$3 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$201	+$79	+40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$47	+$23	+48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$198	+$12	+6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$70	−$70	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$181	58m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	19¢	$41	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	93¢	$9	41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$201	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$47	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$198	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$70	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$999	4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$93	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$123	4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$116	4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$122	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$112	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,630.64 · official $1,630.64 (match) · 21 history records