Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69bd…af6e other 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$276 (-4%) realized −$275 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate80%143W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$85
14 days+$120
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$109
sports 27% −$46
weather 16% +$11
tech 8% +$20
culture 2% −$103
world 2% +$2
politics 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.5% -1.8% 91% 36% -3.3%
≤30d 27 +2.5% -7.3% 93% 22% -8.9%
≤90d 61 -6.8% -15.7% 79% 39% -10.9%
all 179 -3.3% -12.5% 80% 37% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 37% -12.8%
10% -20.9% 15% -21.2%
15% -28.5% 7% -28.8%
20% -35.5% 4% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$20 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$275
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses143 / 36
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage159d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$23 +23%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $147 +$4 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$43 +42%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $138 −$42 -30%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $136 +$3 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $120 +$16 +13%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 02 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 1? Jun 02 $139 +$4 +3%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $134 +$5 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 31? Jun 01 $130 +$4 +3%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $126 +$4 +3%
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $120 +$6 +5%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) May 31 $116 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 29? May 30 $110 +$2 +2%
Spread: North Macedonia (-1.5) May 29 $110 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ma May 29 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 on May 27? May 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $13 +$7 +55%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5 May 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $19 −$18 -99%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5 May 16 $18 +$1 +6%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score May 16 $11 +$6 +54%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: CF América (-1.5) May 11 $11 +$2 +17%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score May 02 $2 −$1 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $24 −$23 -95%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $24 +$1 +3%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $21 +$3 +13%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $19 +$2 +12%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $14 +$2 +13%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $11 +$3 +24%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $11 +$1 +13%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $8 −$7 -87%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 04 $5 +$1 +18%
Spread: Club Puebla (-1.5) Apr 04 $4 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $100 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $100 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $100 11h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 97¢ $100 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 81¢ $101 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $101 3d
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $147 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY 70¢ $102 5d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 97¢ $100 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $96 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 63¢ $97 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $138 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $136 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 88¢ $120 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $100 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 92¢ $150 17d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Croatia 95¢ $143 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 1? BUY No 97¢ $139 19d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? SELL No 100¢ $139 19d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 96¢ $134 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $134 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $130 20d
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 100¢ $130 20d
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 97¢ $126 20d
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 100¢ $126 20d
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 95¢ $120 21d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $121 21d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Mexico 96¢ $116 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 29? SELL No 100¢ $112 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.43 · official $99.43 (match) · 357 history records