Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69b6…a5f3 sports 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized +$93 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%47W / 42L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$60
other 23% +$152
politics 22% −$145
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% −$7
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +31.7% +19.1% 67% 67% +15.2%
≤30d 5 -5.1% -14.1% 40% 40% -24.8%
≤90d 8 +2.0% -7.7% 62% 38% -22.8%
all 89 +4.2% -5.7% 53% 44% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 44% -6.3%
10% -14.8% 39% -15.3%
15% -23.0% 35% -23.5%
20% -30.5% 30% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$22 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses47 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)89 / 96
History coverage322d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $64 $79 +$15 (+24%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
US defaults on debt by 2027? Yes $22 $16 −$5 (-24%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $18 $11 −$7 (-38%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +93%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $31 +$6 +19%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $23 −$4 -17%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 29 $527 −$107 -20%
Will CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $13 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $11 +$4 +35%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $1 +$1 +66%
Spread: Atlas FC (-2.5) Mar 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Nicki" or "Nikki" or "Rapper" this week? (February 8) Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
The Ring - High Stakes: Ryan Garcia vs. Mario Barrios Mar 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $35 −$2 -5%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $3 $0 +12%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $3 +$1 +36%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $46 +$55 +119%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $90 +$40 +45%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $68 +$109 +161%
1H Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) Feb 09 $19 +$21 +108%
Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Metaplanet purchase Bitcoin July 29-August 4? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Christian McCaffrey: Anytime Touchdown Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Bills Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Chargers (-2.5) Feb 06 $9 −$9 -100%
1H Spread: Chargers (-0.5) Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Feb 06 $14 −$14 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Feb 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 47.5 Feb 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Oregon vs. Indiana Feb 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2025-11-18? Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Cowboys vs. Giants Feb 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Oregon (-21.5) Feb 06 $92 −$92 -100%
Chris Eubank Jr. vs Conor Benn Nov 15, 2025 Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-01-31? Feb 06 $28 −$28 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 06 $16 −$16 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 03 $10 +$14 +150%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $3 +$3 +100%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $42 +$38 +92%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Jan 27 $69 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 32m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 35m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 11h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $19 29h
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes $19 26d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 27d
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY Yes $8 27d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 27d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 27d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $4 27d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 27d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $0 27d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 27d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 28d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $7 28d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 28d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 28d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 28d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 28d
Will CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 29d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $4 32d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $13 32d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $3 65d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $17 66d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $14 66d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $1 68d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $1 69d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $2 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.09 · official $151.09 (match) · 673 history records