trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 67% | 0% | -6.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 67% | 0% | -6.4% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 67% | 0% | -6.4% |
| all | 3 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 67% | 0% | -6.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 0% | -6.4% |
| 10% | -17.4% | 0% | -15.4% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 0% | -23.5% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -31.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? | Yes | 71¢ | 52¢ | $20 | $15 | −$5 (-27%) |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | No | 98¢ | 96¢ | $12 | $12 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 87¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? | Yes | 45¢ | 42¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-8%) |
| Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? | Yes | 9¢ | 16¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+78%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu | Jun 27 | $25 | +$2 | +7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 24 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? | Jun 21 | $7 | $0 | -5% |