Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
69 0x69b5…3b73 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+5%) realized +$14 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$1
politics 34% −$6
world 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -6.4%
≤30d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -6.4%
≤90d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -6.4%
all 3 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -6.4%
10% -17.4% 0% -15.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -23.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.26 per $1 lost it wins $5.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)3 / 10
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? No 93¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 71¢ 52¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals No 98¢ 96¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 87¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 87¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $25 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 21 $7 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.10 · official $80.08 (match) · 15 history records