Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69b4…1aa3 crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$332 (+6%) realized +$332 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%41W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -14.5% -22.6% 55% 50% -11.4%
≤30d 74 -14.5% -22.6% 55% 50% -11.4%
≤90d 74 -14.5% -22.6% 55% 50% -11.4%
all 74 -14.5% -22.6% 55% 50% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 50% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 45% -19.9%
15% -36.8% 28% -27.6%
20% -43.0% 23% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$40 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$332
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses41 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage3d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 59¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$23 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$32 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $233 +$37 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$18 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$30 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$81 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $211 +$54 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $209 +$63 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$31 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $79 +$28 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $156 −$50 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$36 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$76 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$73 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $126 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $256 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.66 · official $1.70 (match) · 198 history records