Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x69b2…db56 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$50 (-3%) realized −$20 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$103
14 days−$95
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$38
sports 5% −$13
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -18.4% -26.2% 60% 50% -37.6%
≤30d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 73% 60% -19.8%
≤90d 22 -0.5% -9.9% 77% 59% -11.3%
all 22 -0.5% -9.9% 77% 59% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 59% -11.3%
10% -18.6% 18% -19.7%
15% -26.4% 14% -27.5%
20% -33.6% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$30 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)22 / 35
History coverage73d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $111 −$82 -74%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 +$6 +18%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 +$3 +8%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $40 +$5 +13%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $30 +$5 +15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $30 +$3 +9%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $40 +$6 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 24 $101 +$20 +20%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $100 +$19 +18%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $20 +$11 +52%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $500 +$18 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $1 3h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 31h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 44¢ $12 3d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 88¢ $40 3d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 84¢ $201 3d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 94¢ $35 4d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 85¢ $20 8d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 90¢ $20 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $5 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 46¢ $30 9d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $10 12d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 71¢ $20 14d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 14d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 14d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 90¢ $30 14d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 14d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 81¢ $30 14d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $30 14d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 86¢ $30 14d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.90 · official $421.27 (match) · 58 history records