Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
69 0x69b0…f521 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,196 (-55%) realized −$980 · open −$216
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days−$5
30 days−$949
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$1,159
sports 20% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.0% +2.2% 33% 33% +0.1%
≤30d 7 -15.8% -23.8% 14% 14% -80.6%
≤90d 12 -12.5% -20.9% 25% 25% -72.4%
all 12 -12.5% -20.9% 25% 25% -72.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 25% -72.4%
10% -28.4% 25% -75.0%
15% -35.4% 25% -77.4%
20% -41.7% 17% -79.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$113 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized−$980
Unrealized−$216
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage49d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 24¢ 18¢ $789 $573 −$216 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $73 −$2 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$23 +46%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 10 $53 −$23 -43%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ding Cuts - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $31 −$1 -3%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 06 $943 −$943 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 May 06 $13 +$12 +93%
LoL: Uwinks vs Rising Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 06 $34 −$33 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - CCT South America May 04 $64 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 03 $43 +$29 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 16¢ $54 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $90 25h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 10¢ $104 35h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 51¢ $73 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $56 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 6d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $52 7d
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska BUY Josip Simundza 87¢ $53 11d
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ding Cuts - Map 1 Winner BUY Abyssal 51¢ $5 13d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 1 Winner BUY Ground Zero 51¢ $31 13d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 14¢ $2 39d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 15¢ $264 39d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 10¢ $106 44d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes $9 44d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 10¢ $158 44d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes $126 44d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 BUY Walczaki 51¢ $13 46d
LoL: Uwinks vs Rising Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Rising Gaming 67¢ $34 46d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 10¢ $279 46d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 70¢ $502 48d
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - CCT South America BUY UNO MILLE 50¢ $64 48d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In SELL Lavked 100¢ $71 48d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In BUY Lavked 59¢ $43 48d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $12 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.33 · official $573.33 (match) · 36 history records