Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69ae…2dc8 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$784 (-19%) realized −$764 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$935
sports 37% +$136
world 2% −$100
crypto 2% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -11.7% -20.2% 38% 38% -44.3%
≤30d 13 -11.7% -20.2% 38% 38% -44.3%
≤90d 13 -11.7% -20.2% 38% 38% -44.3%
all 13 -11.7% -20.2% 38% 38% -44.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 38% -44.3%
10% -27.8% 38% -49.6%
15% -34.8% 38% -54.5%
20% -41.2% 31% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$179 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,980
Realized−$764
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions10
Markets (closed)13 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Senegal 78¢ 78¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 40¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 38¢ 38¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $506 −$348 -69%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$374 +365%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $204 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 78¢ $302 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $401 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $204 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $157 12h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $101 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 26h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $203 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 26h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,980.37 · official $1,980.42 (match) · 30 history records