Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69a3…3eca crypto 823 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$836 (-4%) realized −$836 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate70%579W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$728
other 2% −$140
sports 0% −$17
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -5.2% -14.2% 85% 1% -10.9%
≤30d 119 -5.6% -14.6% 84% 3% -11.7%
≤90d 132 -6.8% -15.7% 80% 5% -12.3%
all 822 -6.7% -15.5% 70% 26% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 26% -13.6%
10% -23.6% 14% -21.8%
15% -31.0% 11% -29.4%
20% -37.8% 10% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$836
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses579 / 243
Open positions1
Markets (closed)822 / 823
History coverage153d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 822 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.00 · official $20.00 (match) · 3386 history records