Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69a3…49f9 crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+5%) realized +$28 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%29W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day95.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$14
weather 7% −$2
other 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -9.9% -18.4% 57% 55% -13.7%
≤30d 51 -9.9% -18.4% 57% 55% -13.7%
≤90d 51 -9.9% -18.4% 57% 55% -13.7%
all 51 -9.9% -18.4% 57% 55% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 55% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 41% -21.9%
15% -33.4% 31% -29.5%
20% -39.9% 22% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses29 / 22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day95.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -37%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -74%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $46 +$7 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -85%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 7m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 9m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 9m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $7 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $16 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 71¢ $19 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 18m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 23m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 23m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.59 · official $21.59 (match) · 139 history records