Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69a2…3bee sports 458 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$463 (-4%) realized −$497 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%211W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$27
14 days−$204
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$556
world 13% −$34
other 2% +$24
finance 0% +$13
politics 0% +$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -14.2% -22.4% 33% 19% -34.9%
≤30d 121 -9.5% -18.2% 45% 36% -28.7%
≤90d 418 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 42% -14.7%
all 418 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 42% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 42% -14.7%
10% -15.2% 37% -22.9%
15% -23.4% 35% -30.3%
20% -30.9% 32% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$497
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses211 / 207
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions40
Markets (closed)418 / 458
History coverage84d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 74¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+49%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $25 $29 +$3 (+14%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 66¢ 84¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+27%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 56¢ 62¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 78¢ 90¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 91¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+47%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+53%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 96¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+152%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 54¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? No 78¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 57¢ 18¢ $14 $5 −$10 (-68%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +231%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -57%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 −$3 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -59%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $13 −$12 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -30%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +16%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -69%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $14 −$13 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $16 −$15 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $19 −$18 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $21 −$21 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $29 −$29 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 05 $28 −$27 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $32 −$32 -98%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 05 $36 −$35 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 05 $32 +$29 +90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $5 +$6 +114%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 03 $5 +$6 +119%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 02 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25 +$3 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $5 31m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 8h
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $1 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 36¢ $1 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 27¢ $1 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14h
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 35h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $3 35h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $1 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes $0 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 56¢ $3 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 50¢ $3 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.40 · official $295.47 (match) · 1616 history records