Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x69a0…e5f6 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28,575 (+11%) realized +$28,575 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate69%55W / 25L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$2,811per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$3,816now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$500
14 days+$256
30 days+$13,012
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$24,466
tech 17% +$859
finance 11% +$445
politics 11% +$395
sports 6% +$996
crypto 4% +$592
world 1% −$350
culture 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 +13.0% +2.2% 71% 57% +6.0%
≤90d 26 +21.8% +10.2% 92% 62% +2.2%
all 80 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 44% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 44% +0.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 30% -9.5%
15% -26.3% 20% -18.2%
20% -33.5% 16% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$542 vs −$97 · ×5.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.24 per $1 lost it wins $12.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$3,816
Realized+$28,575
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses55 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)80 / 93
History coverage386d
Avg bet$2,811
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $1,000 $1,034 +$34 (+3%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,016 +$16 (+2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $500 $524 +$24 (+5%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 79¢ 97¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+23%)
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $43,856 +$859 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Jun 08 $259 −$103 -40%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $10,512 +$4,876 +46%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $816 +$886 +109%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $10,908 +$2,227 +20%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $8,978 +$4,767 +53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 28 $890 +$22 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 27 $374 +$30 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 27 $17,202 +$209 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 27 $10,033 +$185 +2%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 18 $27,301 +$395 +1%
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 14 $200 +$127 +64%
Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 14 $400 +$76 +19%
Grok memecoin wallet hits $1M before April? Apr 01 $1,450 +$237 +16%
Will 01.xyz reach $5B in total volume by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $4,900 +$2,097 +43%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $100 +$100 +100%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $300 +$81 +27%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $950 +$668 +70%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $1,238 +$388 +31%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $1,784 +$290 +16%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $2,100 +$328 +16%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $3,667 +$772 +21%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $4,657 +$472 +10%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $7,783 +$1,473 +19%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $2,000 +$160 +8%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 05 $500 +$9 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $12,142 +$613 +5%
Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Over $500K committed to the Foresee public sale? Feb 09 $314 +$229 +73%
Over $1M committed to the Foresee public sale? Feb 09 $2,000 +$250 +12%
Over $200K committed to the Foresee public sale? Feb 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $500 +$593 +119%
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 16 $100 −$22 -22%
Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $16,957 +$799 +5%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $2,000 +$603 +30%
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $7,500 +$200 +3%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 08 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? Jan 01 $3,000 +$801 +27%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 01 $5,903 +$552 +9%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 31 $4,272 +$225 +5%
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 20 $1,536 +$440 +29%
Over $50M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 20 $2,650 +$336 +13%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 10 $8,000 +$389 +5%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 08 $79 +$28 +35%
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 07 $154 +$31 +20%
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $7,839 +$117 +2%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Oct 18 $309 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 1h
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 55¢ $101 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $5 22h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,008 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 2¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $500 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 2¢ $2 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 8¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 3¢ $5 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $19,970 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $23,886 8d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $156 11d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $259 15d
Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY No 79¢ $16 39d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 72¢ $279 51d
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 62¢ $192 51d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 63¢ $494 52d
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 55¢ $310 52d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 54¢ $295 52d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 53¢ $123 52d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 51¢ $311 52d
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 35¢ $314 52d
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 63¢ $390 52d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 45¢ $520 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL No 88¢ $911 52d
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 62¢ $5,622 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,816.22 · official $3,816.53 (match) · 301 history records