Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
69 0x6998…6111 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$29 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$2
culture 23% +$2
other 12% +$2
crypto 10% −$2
politics 2% +$25
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 20 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.6%
all 36 +30.7% +18.3% 50% 3% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.3% 3% -7.8%
10% +7.0% 3% -16.6%
15% -3.4% 3% -24.7%
20% -12.8% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.15 per $1 lost it wins $5.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage458d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 83¢ 80¢ $42 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $22 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $23 −$2 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $90 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $58 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $85 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $23 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $5 $0 -6%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $152 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $61 +$2 +4%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Dec 12 $2 +$25 +1090%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $7 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 17 $7 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Apr 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $11 $0 +3%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $6 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $36 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $42 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $11 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $31 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $31 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $11 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $19 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $14 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.82 · official $40.55 (match) · 122 history records