Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6997…319b sports 216 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%19W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$3
sports 26% −$8
other 24% −$4
culture 7% $0
economics 5% $0
world 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 4 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 215 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses19 / 196
Open positions1
Markets (closed)215 / 216
History coverage175d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 94¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $225 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $91 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $132 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $267 +$1 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $87 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 03 $353 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $109 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $88 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $98 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $301 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March? Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $139 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $43 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 13d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 20d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 20d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 31d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 95¢ $34 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $35 39d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $47 112d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $47 112d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $43 112d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $44 112d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 112d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 112d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $47 112d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 112d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $40 112d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $40 112d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $48 112d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 112d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $43 112d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $43 112d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 112d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 112d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $45 112d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $38 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $38 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $37 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.43 · official $42.43 (match) · 826 history records