Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6996…cf9a sports 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$16,562 (+40%) realized +$16,604 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%143W / 219L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Fees−$904est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$1,045
other 28% +$1,509
politics 19% +$860
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +37.0% +23.9% 27% 22% -9.1%
≤30d 255 +23.3% +11.5% 33% 29% -5.2%
≤90d 362 +38.1% +24.9% 40% 34% -2.4%
all 362 +38.1% +24.9% 40% 34% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.9% 34% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here +13.0% 30% -11.8%
15% +2.1% 27% -20.3%
20% -8.0% 24% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +50% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$39 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$16,604
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses143 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$904
Open positions7
Markets (closed)362 / 269
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 42¢ $92 $85 −$7 (-8%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $56 $42 −$14 (-26%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 17¢ $15 $11 −$3 (-23%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-94%)
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1450%)
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1275%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 60 million views on day 3 Jun 17 $2 +$20 +880%
Will Colombia vs. France end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League final? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -103%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 77 and 78 million views on day 6 Jun 17 $6 +$427 +7574%
Will Peru win on 2026-03-28? Jun 17 $1 +$8 +782%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$4 -171%
Will CS Cienciano vs. Academia Puerto Cabello end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$17 -126%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Jun 17 $11 −$9 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs strongboys - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $16 −$18 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$4 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 76 and 77 million views on day 5 Jun 17 $82 −$212 -259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +454%
Will Senegal vs. Peru end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$35 -116%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 82 and 83 million views on week Jun 17 $25 −$21 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 55 million views on day 1 Jun 17 $0 +$46 +92997%
Dota 2: Heroic vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Americas Closed Q Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 46 million views on day 3? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 52 million views on day 3 Jun 17 $7 +$10 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cusco FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 +$14 +7981%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 12PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$11 -141%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$8 -660%
Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia C Jun 17 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$18 +266%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 65 and 68 million views on day 3 Jun 17 $151 −$99 -65%
Will Solana dip to $110 January 19-25? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 5PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-03-27? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $94 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $114 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $21 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $32 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $70 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $31 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $8 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL No 25¢ $24 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 21¢ $21 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 79¢ $157 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $87 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $18 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $21 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $26 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $13 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $13 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $15 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 65¢ $3 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 55¢ $11 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 55¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.12 · official $175.12 (match) · 3500 history records