Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6994…5969 politics 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,343 (-1%) realized −$2,343 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%40W / 145L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,471per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$41
14 days−$207
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$150
politics 40% −$145
sports 8% −$2,458
economics 4% −$1
world 3% +$61
culture 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 -4.9% -13.9% 9% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 116 -3.2% -12.4% 6% 3% -10.7%
all 185 +4.2% -5.7% 22% 13% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 13% -10.3%
10% -14.7% 13% -18.9%
15% -23.0% 11% -26.7%
20% -30.5% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,225) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$25 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$2,343
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses40 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,471
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $174 $174 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $2,223 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,768 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,935 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,063 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $9,340 −$10 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,158 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4,620 −$5 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $2,382 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,941 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $5,138 −$6 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,259 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,216 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,461 −$3 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $79 −$79 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,661 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,467 −$5 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $71 +$74 +105%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $3,814 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,413 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,169 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $47 +$32 +67%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,183 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,094 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $334 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $530 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,944 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,934 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,054 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $411 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $255 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,840 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,837 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,598 −$3 -0%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 25 $76 +$49 +65%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $617 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $736 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $737 3h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $863 17h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $865 19h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 22h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $852 22h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $766 23h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $768 26h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $894 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $895 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $826 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $827 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,059 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,060 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,058 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,060 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,057 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,061 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,063 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,064 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $962 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $964 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $950 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $951 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $923 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $924 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.25 · official $174.25 (match) · 638 history records