Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6993…c79a sports 405 markets active 49d ago coverage 66d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,024 (+427%) realized +$1,032 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +559% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +408% what you keep after slip
Net edge+408%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%308W / 222L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day53.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,687
7 days+$1,687
14 days+$1,687
30 days+$1,687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$22
crypto 16% −$6
tech 14% −$23
weather 9% +$4
sports 9% +$3
culture 3% +$12
politics 3% +$7
world 1% +$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+496.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +1937.5% +1743.5% 98% 98% +997.6%
≤30d 129 +1937.5% +1743.5% 98% 98% +997.6%
≤90d 133 +1886.5% +1697.3% 98% 98% +298.2%
all 530 +559.4% +496.6% 58% 56% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +496.6% 56% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here +439.5% 55% -21.8%
15% +387.3% 52% -29.4%
20% +339.6% 50% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59140% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +559% · $-wt +704% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late +1071% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×11.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.76 per $1 lost it wins $15.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$1,032
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses308 / 222
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions369
Markets (closed)530 / 405
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day53.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 369 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? Yes $1 $4 +$3 (+250%)
Will the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? Yes $1 $3 +$2 (+314%)
Will Alexandre Pantoja be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Yes 21¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+3358%)
Will Randall Arrington be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+43%)
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$1 (+83%)
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes 73¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+14559%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? Yes 20¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2820%)
Will Jelena Ostapenko win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+51%)
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Kristen McDonald Rivet win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Ed Sheeran be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes 22¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2115%)
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? Yes 59¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+19630%)
Will Tara Nethercott win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+120%)
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? No 59¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19497%)
Will Zachary Roper win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Missy Hughes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Will Joshua Van be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Alexandre Pantoja next? Yes 45¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11388%)
Will Ted Cruz be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%? Yes 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3680%)
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Tomas Chrenko be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Post Malone be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3892%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? Jun 15 $0 +$5 +109474%
Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 100k and 125k? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +28256%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? Jun 15 $0 +$12 +621737%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 22? Jun 15 $0 +$3 +74926%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 21? Jun 15 $0 +$3 +86997%
Will the price of XRP be less than $2.50 on October 11? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +27872%
Will Nico Hulkenberg finish in 3rd place at the 2025 F1 British Grand Jun 15 $0 +$9 +354975%
Will Oscar Piastri finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +29144%
Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or higher on July 21? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +53832%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112,000 on October 11? Jun 15 $0 +$4 +83127%
Will Columbus Sliders win the 2025 Major League Pickleball Finals? Jun 15 $0 +$3 +116724%
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on September 26? Jun 15 $0 +$3 +138790%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? Jun 15 $0 +$6 +143731%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jul Jun 15 $0 +$1 +49641%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on September 2 Jun 15 $0 +$7 +250818%
Will Marques Brownlee's next video get between 4.0–5.5 million views o Jun 15 $0 +$1 +44825%
Will there be 4+ knockdowns during Paul vs Joshua? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +11669%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,100 on October 10? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +16140%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Jun 15 $0 +$2 +43365%
Will the US strike Syria next? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +30384%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in December? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +41844%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 9? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +14442%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 +5731%
US bank failure by January 31? Jun 15 $0 +$17 +495237%
Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor? Jun 15 $0 +$14 +323823%
Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 September 15-21? Jun 15 $0 +$6 +365269%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +55988%
Will Not Quite Dead Yet (Holly Jackson) win Readers' Favorite Mystery Jun 15 $0 +$2 +52412%
Solana above $160 on September 8? Jun 15 $0 +$90 +350648%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on Dec Jun 15 $0 +$5 +59876%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 9? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +12441%
Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $0 +$99 +2607024%
Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +15306%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on Dece Jun 15 $0 +$3 +114168%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on September 4? Jun 15 $0 +$9 +308233%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on January 21? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +47714%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +29413%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 9? Jun 15 $0 +$6 +211148%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 12? Jun 15 $0 +$6 +282304%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on January 31? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +16308%
Will turnout be between 44% and 48% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Ele Jun 15 $0 +$7 +205281%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Jul Jun 15 $0 +$2 +79983%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 +12173%
Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025? Jun 15 $0 +$12 +290386%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 22? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +38282%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +20362%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 21? Jun 15 $0 +$5 +194854%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 25? Jun 15 $0 $0 +10337%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-25? Jun 15 $0 +$10 +124352%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 31? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +90737%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Danielle Collins win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $0 49d
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $1 51d
Will Liudmila Samsonova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $0 51d
Will Leisa Mitchell Haynes win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican p SELL Yes $0 51d
Will Liudmila Samsonova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $0 51d
Will Liudmila Samsonova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $0 51d
Will Liudmila Samsonova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $0 51d
Will Dayana Yastremska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $1 51d
Will the Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (BGPM) win the most seat SELL Yes $0 52d
Will Marcus Rashford be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga sea SELL Yes $0 52d
Will Post Malone be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 52d
Will Karolína Plíšková win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $2 52d
Will Doja Cat be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? SELL Yes $0 53d
Will Karolína Plíšková win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $0 53d
Will Emma Navarro win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $0 53d
Will Markéta Vondroušová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $0 53d
Will Barbora Krejčíková win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes $1 53d
Will Jon McNeill be the next CEO of Lululemon? SELL Yes $0 53d
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $0 53d
Will Max Holloway be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings SELL Yes $0 56d
Will Max Holloway be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings SELL Yes $0 56d
Will Renato Moicano be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 SELL Yes $0 58d
Will Welsh Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd e SELL Yes $0 58d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $0 58d
Will Shavkat Rakhmonov be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31 SELL Yes $0 58d
Will Tim Jacobson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary e SELL Yes $0 58d
Will T.J. McConnell win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? SELL Yes $0 58d
Will Nate Ament be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes $0 58d
Will Alberts Smits be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes $0 58d
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes $0 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.55 · official $32.29 · 3500 history records