Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x6993…3f71 other 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$908 (+8%) realized +$906 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%24W / 73L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$296
7 days−$74
14 days+$569
30 days+$569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$834
other 41% −$102
world 3% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +2.0% -7.7% 23% 21% -8.8%
≤30d 97 +7.4% -2.8% 25% 24% -3.7%
≤90d 97 +7.4% -2.8% 25% 24% -3.7%
all 97 +7.4% -2.8% 25% 24% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 24% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 21% -12.9%
15% -20.6% 21% -21.3%
20% -28.4% 16% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$35 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$906
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses24 / 73
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage12d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $113 −$16 -14%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $62 −$4 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $494 −$21 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$6 -6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$3 -3%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $103 +$7 +7%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $62 +$27 +44%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $72 +$182 +254%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$16 -16%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$8 -26%
South Africa to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 18 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$6 -3%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$7 -14%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -24%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 +$28 +55%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 +$6 +21%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$55 -55%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $72 +$167 +233%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$18 -34%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $133 −$130 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $113 −$110 -97%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 16 $123 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $62 −$11 -18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$4 -4%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $103 −$82 -80%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $123 −$64 -52%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $102 −$14 -14%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$44 +43%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$287 +1396%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 −$15 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $183 −$150 -82%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$48 +47%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $416 −$31 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $92 −$13 -15%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 11m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 11m
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 11m
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 15m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 11¢ $54 15m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 6¢ $57 15m
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 6¢ $58 15m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $473 16m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $494 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 39¢ $96 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $98 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 18¢ $110 10h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 12h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $203 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 19h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.80 · official $111.80 (match) · 269 history records