Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x6993…1213 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$16
politics 32% −$10
sports 5% −$7
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 +3.0% -6.8% 7% 4% -9.5%
all 126 +1.3% -8.4% 10% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 6% -18.3%
15% -25.2% 6% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×7.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 113
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)126 / 129
History coverage119d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $285 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $220 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $234 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $177 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $313 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $175 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $142 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $193 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $404 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $393 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $175 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $227 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $302 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $392 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $244 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $416 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $242 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $441 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $228 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $473 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $244 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $444 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $415 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 24h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 26h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 30h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $24 30h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 3d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $37 3d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $37 4d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 9d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $29 16d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $220 25d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $220 31d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $234 32d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $234 33d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $191 33d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $191 34d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $226 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.93 · official $87.93 (match) · 362 history records