Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x6992…6c1d world 158 markets active 4h ago coverage 95d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,568 (+9%) realized +$22,298 · open −$9,730
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%74W / 61L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$867per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10,185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,927
7 days+$10,269
14 days+$2,017
30 days+$2,260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$10,191
finance 36% −$1,819
other 3% −$1,378
sports 2% −$19
economics 2% −$342
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +292.3% +255.0% 100% 100% +243.8%
≤30d 37 +25.1% +13.2% 41% 35% -2.0%
≤90d 130 +44.6% +30.8% 55% 47% +5.9%
all 135 +42.8% +29.2% 55% 47% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.2% 47% +5.9%
10% +16.8% 35% -4.3%
15% ← realistic here +5.5% 27% -13.5%
20% -4.8% 24% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,023) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +72% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$535 vs −$387 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$10,185
Realized+$22,298
Unrealized−$9,730
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses74 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions23
Markets (closed)135 / 158
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$867
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $2,584 $1,937 −$647 (-25%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $2,458 $1,837 −$620 (-25%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $3,938 $1,605 −$2,333 (-59%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 92¢ $800 $915 +$115 (+14%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 29¢ 17¢ $1,502 $883 −$619 (-41%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $1,055 $740 −$314 (-30%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $1,310 $648 −$662 (-51%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $1,415 $357 −$1,058 (-75%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $762 $294 −$467 (-61%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $1,080 $240 −$840 (-78%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $603 $190 −$413 (-68%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 35¢ 50¢ $84 $119 +$35 (+41%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $880 $112 −$768 (-87%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $990 $81 −$909 (-92%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 42¢ 18¢ $168 $72 −$96 (-57%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $108 $62 −$47 (-43%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Yes 34¢ 8¢ $136 $34 −$102 (-75%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 5¢ 34¢ $3 $22 +$19 (+585%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 12¢ 37¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+210%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 59¢ 77¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 20 $2,068 +$5,927 +287%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $900 +$940 +104%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $700 +$3,402 +486%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,299 −$630 -48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $3,198 −$2,542 -80%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 14 $2,638 −$712 -27%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $11,106 −$2,094 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $330 −$330 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $1,457 −$736 -50%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $1,202 −$657 -55%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $887 −$560 -63%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $84 +$9 +11%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 07 $1,400 −$148 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,159 +$1,349 +116%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $62 +$26 +42%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 01 $919 −$266 -29%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $847 −$676 -80%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $1,070 +$861 +80%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 30 $7 +$2 +26%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $466 −$11 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $132 −$106 -80%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $176 +$11 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,294 +$180 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $690 −$480 -70%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $197 +$36 +18%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,232 +$116 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $682 +$1,518 +223%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 25 $190 −$190 -100%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $556 +$461 +83%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 24 $24 −$6 -25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $437 −$413 -95%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $167 −$159 -95%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 24 $522 −$91 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 23 $1,344 −$991 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 23 $2,084 −$850 -41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 23 $1,506 −$583 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $2,436 +$651 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 23 $6,796 −$3,360 -49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $162 +$88 +54%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $4 −$4 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 20? May 20 $150 −$150 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 20? May 20 $271 −$270 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 19 $476 −$246 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 19 $1,162 +$348 +30%
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? May 18 $240 +$6 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $610 −$511 -84%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 11 $1,023 −$566 -55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $150 −$38 -25%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by M May 07 $370 +$602 +163%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $126 −$88 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $283 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,140 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,325 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $118 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $86 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 17h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 26h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 33h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 36h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 37h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 37h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $657 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $192 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $514 45h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $39 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $43 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $49 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $84 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $263 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $132 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,185.29 · official $10,185.04 (match) · 3500 history records