Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:32:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6991…b08a crypto 229 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate90%202W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$19
other 14% +$30
economics 9% −$12
tech 5% −$12
weather 3% −$8
world 1% −$13
sports 1% −$3
finance 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.2% -22.4% 86% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 50 -7.4% -16.2% 90% 6% -7.9%
≤90d 124 -1.5% -10.9% 94% 7% -8.4%
all 225 -3.8% -13.0% 90% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 11% -9.4%
10% -21.3% 5% -18.1%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.0%
20% -35.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses202 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)225 / 229
History coverage207d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? No 67¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 77¢ 27¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 9? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $59 +$41 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $81 +$16 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs C Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 15? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League No May 28 $3 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $30 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 97¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $5 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $59 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.75 · official $30.75 (match) · 498 history records