Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x698c…ddc8 sports 2015 markets active 17h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$556 (-6%) realized −$560 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%1100W / 882L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day84.2pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,243
7 days−$1,160
14 days−$923
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$1,047
other 16% +$124
politics 2% −$32
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 577 -43.9% -49.2% 36% 34% -72.4%
≤30d 1982 -2.1% -11.5% 55% 51% -10.7%
≤90d 1982 -2.1% -11.5% 55% 51% -10.7%
all 1982 -2.1% -11.5% 55% 51% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 51% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 37% -19.2%
15% -27.7% 29% -27.0%
20% -34.8% 23% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$560
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses1100 / 882
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1982 / 2015
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day84.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1982 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $61 $65 +$4 (+7%)
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Ghana leading at halftime? No 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Korea Republic leading at halftime? No 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 71¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 86¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 80¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. FC Andorra: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Molde FK (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Mert Alkaya Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-05-03? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-24? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Viborg FF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
SC Braga vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Kilmarnock FC vs. Dundee FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Modern SC vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
SK Brann vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-05-11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-04-27? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Savannah: Kilian Feldbausch vs Clement Tabur Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Göztepe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Girona FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Cordoba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Miguel Tobon Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
SC Freiburg leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 89¢ $1 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $1 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 90¢ $1 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 80¢ $1 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 86¢ $1 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 17h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $1 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL No 69¢ $1 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $1 17h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 89¢ $1 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $1 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $1 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 36h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 12¢ $0 36h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $1 36h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 49¢ $1 36h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 36h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 52¢ $1 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Under 56¢ $1 36h
United States leading at halftime? SELL No 56¢ $1 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL No 57¢ $1 36h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL No 55¢ $1 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 54¢ $1 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 55¢ $1 36h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 41h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $1 41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.30 · official $72.07 · 3500 history records