Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x698b…e51e world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$1
other 29% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 18% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 15% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 19 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 33 -5.8% -14.8% 39% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage472d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $42 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $43 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 3 seats in the next Canadian Election? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 03 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 14 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $43 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $7 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $32 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $39 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $43 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records