Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

69 0x6989…71d3 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$151per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+32.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+46.8%	+32.8%	75%	50%	+53.6%
≤30d	4	+46.8%	+32.8%	75%	50%	+53.6%
≤90d	4	+46.8%	+32.8%	75%	50%	+53.6%
all	4	+46.8%	+32.8%	75%	50%	+53.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.8%	50%	+53.6%
10%	+20.1%	50%	+38.9%
15%	+8.5%	50%	+25.5%
20%	-2.1%	50%	+13.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +70% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$106 vs −$25 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×12.6 per $1 lost it wins $12.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$6

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$151

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$53	+$59	+111%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$213	+$250	+118%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$235	−$25	-11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$104	+$10	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$112	20m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	49¢	$463	54m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	43¢	$53	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	12¢	$53	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	13¢	$182	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$114	3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$181	4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$213	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	84¢	$104	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records