Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6986…0acc crypto 581 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,940 (-3%) realized −$1,922 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%220W / 360L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,979
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -13.4% -21.6% 43% 41% -23.3%
≤30d 68 -16.2% -24.2% 38% 37% -25.5%
≤90d 580 -10.3% -18.8% 38% 37% -19.0%
all 580 -10.3% -18.8% 38% 37% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 37% -19.0%
10% -26.6% 37% -26.7%
15% -33.7% 37% -33.8%
20% -40.2% 35% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$108 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$1,922
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses220 / 360
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)580 / 581
History coverage88d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 36¢ 32¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $308 +$121 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $123 −$117 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $165 +$142 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $311 −$295 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $135 −$120 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $312 −$253 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $316 −$305 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $121 −$117 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $311 −$288 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $208 +$229 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $245 +$258 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET Jun 26 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $87 +$76 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $207 +$176 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $399 −$385 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $208 +$273 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $210 +$425 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $208 +$280 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $260 +$289 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $208 +$228 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $208 +$243 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $312 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $322 −$310 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $312 +$340 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $248 +$226 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $146 −$101 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $311 +$345 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $218 +$196 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$21 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $333 −$320 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $521 +$542 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $630 −$607 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $518 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $37 −$35 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $209 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $429 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $308 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $165 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $123 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $209 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $16 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $15 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $135 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $58 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $312 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $208 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $207 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $213 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $121 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.32 · official $187.93 · 1209 history records