Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6986…3369 sports 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (450 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$300 (-7%) realized −$88 · open −$212
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day450.0pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$222
other 13% −$163
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (450 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 46% -15.5%
≤30d 39 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 46% -15.5%
≤90d 39 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 46% -15.5%
all 39 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 46% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover450.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 46% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 41% -23.6%
15% -28.9% 41% -30.9%
20% -35.9% 31% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$47 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,157
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$212
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions26
Markets (closed)39 / 65
History coverage1d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day450.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 40¢ 40¢ $151 $153 +$2 (+1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 45¢ 48¢ $140 $148 +$8 (+6%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $140 $143 +$4 (+3%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 35¢ 34¢ $139 $137 −$2 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 58¢ 57¢ $79 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 56¢ 58¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner 100 Thieves 67¢ 66¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 53¢ 55¢ $52 $54 +$1 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 100 Thieves 68¢ 69¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs ex-RUBY 36¢ 18¢ $87 $45 −$42 (-48%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner 100 Thieves 63¢ 66¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Spirit 59¢ 60¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ 64¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) ex-RUBY 54¢ 65¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+20%)
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) 100 Thieves 42¢ 44¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Spirit 30¢ 34¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs QUAZAR 79¢ 78¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner ex-RUBY 40¢ 42¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) ex-RUBY 67¢ 42¢ $12 $7 −$4 (-37%)
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Phantom 41¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 70¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) ex-RUBY 55¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner ex-RUBY 42¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $16 +$29 +173%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +93%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $12 +$23 +200%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $36 +$24 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $6 +$4 +72%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $135 −$12 -9%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $49 +$37 +76%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $23 +$37 +161%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $129 −$129 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) Jun 20 $17 +$7 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 20 $35 +$14 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$5 +110%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $163 +$21 +13%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $166 −$149 -90%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $165 +$98 +59%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $169 +$20 +12%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $171 +$135 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $169 −$76 -45%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $167 −$167 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $168 +$79 +47%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $168 +$4 +2%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $33 +$14 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 $0 -12%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $3 +$3 +97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $44 −$3 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $155 +$209 +135%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $3 8m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $133 9m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $2 10m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $2 10m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $2 10m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $2 10m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $2 10m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $3 13m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 58¢ $3 13m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 58¢ $3 14m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $45 20m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 25m
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $35 25m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $61 30m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $11 30m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 58¢ $3 37m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $3 41m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $3 41m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $3 54m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $3 56m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $3 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 58¢ $3 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 58¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $123 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $86 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $61 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,156.55 · official $1,156.51 (match) · 519 history records