Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x6985…afdf
crypto · 903 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,423 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,414 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$296
Realized−$3,414
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses528 / 365
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions10
Markets (closed)893 / 903
History coverage147d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 10 History 893 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$597
14 days−$592
30 days−$2,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $245 $244 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 87¢ 74¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 38¢ 35¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 65¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 +$4 +59%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +59%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +6%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Alexis Nguyen vs Lily Taylor Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $115 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +197%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $152 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 12 $0 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$8 +54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $81 +$21 +26%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $201 −$201 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 10 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $152 +$73 +48%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 31? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $113 −$113 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 1? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? Jun 07 $15 −$4 -28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $3 $0 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $120 +$33 +27%
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 34% −$1,436
politics 16% +$185
world 15% −$2,409
other 12% −$274
finance 10% −$261
sports 7% +$379
tech 3% +$431
economics 1% −$25
weather 0% −$14
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 19m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 19m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 22m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 22m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 0¢ $0 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 1¢ $0 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $6 1h
Kash Patel out by December 31? SELL No 45¢ $6 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 3h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 46¢ $2 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $2 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $247 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 29¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $120 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $115 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $7 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -28.2% -35.0% 46% 28% -41.2%
≤30d 131 -29.1% -35.8% 51% 19% -43.6%
≤90d 401 -10.3% -18.9% 56% 26% -16.0%
all 893 +0.4% -9.1% 59% 29% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 29% -12.5%
10% -17.8% 24% -20.9%
15% -25.8% 20% -28.5%
20% -33.1% 17% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.21 · official $296.21 (match) · 3500 history records