Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6981…b18b crypto 415 markets active 6d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate61%252W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$5
sports 29% −$6
other 5% −$3
world 3% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -10.3% -18.9% 87% 0% -19.0%
≤30d 415 -4.7% -13.8% 61% 19% -12.1%
≤90d 415 -4.7% -13.8% 61% 19% -12.1%
all 415 -4.7% -13.8% 61% 19% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 19% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 15% -20.5%
15% -29.6% 10% -28.2%
20% -36.5% 7% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses252 / 163
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)415 / 415
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 415 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -81%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 841 history records