Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
69 0x6981…2521 sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$841 (-5%) realized −$754 · open −$87
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate81%82W / 19L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$26
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$461
other 9% −$488
culture 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.0% -53.8% 50% 0% -86.8%
≤30d 8 -16.8% -24.7% 75% 38% -29.7%
≤90d 95 -5.0% -14.0% 81% 47% -14.4%
all 101 -4.3% -13.5% 81% 49% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 49% -13.7%
10% -21.7% 25% -22.0%
15% -29.3% 7% -29.5%
20% -36.2% 4% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$157 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$754
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses82 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage96d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 51¢ $100 $13 −$87 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 03 $30 +$4 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $20 +$5 +26%
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Karolina Muchova May 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien May 21 $30 +$4 +13%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Thiago Seyboth Wild May 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Damir Dzumhur May 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katerina Siniakova vs Anna Kalinskaya May 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Huzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Yexin Ma Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Ostrava: Tom Gentzsch vs George Loffhagen Apr 27 $38 +$1 +3%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar Apr 27 $50 +$11 +23%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $83 +$4 +5%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Hamish Stewart Apr 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 26 $100 +$11 +11%
Savannah: Kilian Feldbausch vs Clement Tabur Apr 25 $619 −$619 -100%
Savannah: Mitchell Krueger vs Daniel Galan Apr 25 $143 +$17 +12%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Madrid Open: Andrey Rublev vs Vit Kopriva Apr 24 $130 +$13 +10%
Madrid Open: Dusan Lajovic vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 24 $300 +$29 +10%
Madrid Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Cristina Bucsa Apr 24 $395 +$24 +6%
Oeiras 4: Lucie Havlickova vs Fiona Ferro Apr 24 $200 +$22 +11%
Savannah: Andres Andrade vs Aidan Mayo Apr 24 $300 +$32 +11%
Madrid Open: Caty McNally vs Katie Volynets Apr 23 $601 +$41 +7%
Madrid Open: Panna Udvardy vs Kimberly Birrell Apr 22 $200 +$30 +15%
Shymkent: Timofey Skatov vs Svyatoslav Gulin Apr 22 $200 +$57 +28%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Matteo Arnaldi Apr 21 $200 +$101 +51%
Gwangju: Jason Jung vs Hyeon Chung Apr 21 $400 +$44 +11%
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils Apr 19 $591 +$78 +13%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Ann Li Apr 18 $275 +$5 +2%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $277 +$33 +12%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $200 +$75 +38%
Wuning 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Charles Broom Apr 17 $435 +$42 +10%
Santa Cruz: Valerio Aboian vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Apr 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima Apr 16 $582 +$53 +9%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel Diallo Apr 16 $559 +$23 +4%
Santa Cruz: Luis Guto Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Apr 16 $200 +$68 +34%
Santa Cruz: Nicolas Villalon vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Apr 16 $280 +$11 +4%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Ethan Quinn Apr 15 $433 +$47 +11%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Shuai Zhang vs Linda Noskova Apr 15 $383 +$51 +13%
Wuning 2: Masamichi Imamura vs Moerani Bouzige Apr 15 $353 +$30 +8%
Santa Cruz: Santiago De La Fuente vs Nicolas Villalon Apr 15 $284 +$69 +24%
Santa Cruz: Juan Estevez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Apr 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Oeiras 3: Felix Gill vs Roman Safiullin Apr 14 $270 +$14 +5%
BMW Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Denis Shapovalov Apr 14 $244 +$26 +11%
Tallahassee: Dmitry Popko vs Cannon Kingsley Apr 14 $230 +$14 +6%
Mexico City: James Duckworth vs Stefano Napolitano Apr 13 $300 +$35 +12%
BMW Open: Emilio Nava vs Ben Shelton Apr 13 $265 +$11 +4%
Barcelona Open: Reilly Opelka vs Ethan Quinn Apr 13 $100 +$18 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 98¢ $5 54m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 83¢ $30 1h
Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden BUY Guy Den Ouden 89¢ $30 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 79¢ $20 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 97¢ $20 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 82¢ $30 20d
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 88¢ $30 26d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Emilio Nava 91¢ $30 27d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Learner Tien 94¢ $20 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katerina Siniakova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Katerina Siniakova 93¢ $50 40d
Ostrava: Tom Gentzsch vs George Loffhagen BUY Tom Gentzsch 97¢ $38 50d
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar BUY Mirra Andreeva 81¢ $50 50d
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Aryna Sabalenka 95¢ $83 51d
Huzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Yexin Ma BUY Yexin Ma 77¢ $100 51d
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Hamish Stewart BUY Gauthier Onclin 89¢ $100 51d
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti BUY Lorenzo Musetti 90¢ $100 52d
Savannah: Mitchell Krueger vs Daniel Galan BUY Daniel Galan 89¢ $143 53d
Savannah: Kilian Feldbausch vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 90¢ $619 53d
Madrid Open: Andrey Rublev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 90¢ $130 53d
Madrid Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Cristina Bucsa BUY Zeynep Sonmez 94¢ $395 54d
Madrid Open: Dusan Lajovic vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Arthur Rinderknech 91¢ $300 54d
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot BUY Valentin Vacherot 83¢ $300 54d
Savannah: Andres Andrade vs Aidan Mayo BUY Andres Andrade 90¢ $300 54d
Oeiras 4: Lucie Havlickova vs Fiona Ferro BUY Fiona Ferro 90¢ $200 54d
Madrid Open: Caty McNally vs Katie Volynets BUY Caty McNally 93¢ $601 55d
Madrid Open: Panna Udvardy vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Panna Udvardy 87¢ $200 56d
Shymkent: Timofey Skatov vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Timofey Skatov 77¢ $200 56d
Gwangju: Jason Jung vs Hyeon Chung BUY Hyeon Chung 90¢ $200 57d
Gwangju: Jason Jung vs Hyeon Chung BUY Hyeon Chung 89¢ $200 57d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Dusan Lajovic 66¢ $200 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.78 · official $12.78 (match) · 216 history records