Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6981…4178 other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$38
sports 25% −$28
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$6
world 3% −$1
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 166 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage133d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $771 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $228 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $556 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $336 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $578 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $492 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $132 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $290 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $755 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $363 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $282 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $671 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $152 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $247 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $280 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 28 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 7h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 11h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 13h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 17h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 18h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 20h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 21h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 34h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 36h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 37h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 39h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 41h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 42h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 43h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $20 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $20 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.79 · official $57.79 (match) · 1355 history records