Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x6980…5478 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,889 (+25%) realized +$4,931 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate70%26W / 11L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$495per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,940now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$754
7 days+$3,763
14 days+$4,936
30 days+$4,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$3,371
sports 39% +$1,056
crypto 3% +$395
weather 1% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +20.1% +8.7% 77% 77% +13.6%
≤30d 26 +21.7% +10.1% 77% 77% +16.0%
≤90d 37 +6.0% -4.1% 70% 68% +15.0%
all 37 +6.0% -4.1% 70% 68% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 68% +15.0%
10% -13.2% 68% +4.0%
15% -21.6% 54% -6.0%
20% -29.3% 30% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$735) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$314 vs −$305 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,940
Realized+$4,931
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses26 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage43d
Avg bet$495
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 76¢ 74¢ $912 $882 −$30 (-3%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 65¢ 66¢ $552 $557 +$4 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $517 $501 −$16 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $733 +$237 +32%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $437 +$238 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $628 +$237 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $401 −$397 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $628 +$342 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $717 +$343 +48%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $748 +$352 +47%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $605 −$598 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $789 +$431 +55%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $537 +$439 +82%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $898 +$442 +49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $332 +$198 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $453 −$448 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $473 −$469 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $570 +$200 +35%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,411 +$664 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $850 +$388 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $545 +$395 +72%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $804 −$804 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $594 +$526 +89%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $769 +$519 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $792 +$528 +67%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $657 +$443 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $904 +$446 +49%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $735 +$765 +104%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $480 −$480 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17? May 20 $24 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 17? May 18 $21 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 17? May 18 $40 +$10 +25%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $36 +$14 +37%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 17? May 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17? May 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 14? May 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 14? May 15 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 14? May 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $919 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $523 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $558 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $401 22h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $437 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $733 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $628 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $628 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $717 43h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $605 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $748 45h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $789 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $891 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $537 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $332 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $453 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $473 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $570 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,411 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $850 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $804 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $545 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $769 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $792 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $594 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $657 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $904 8d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $39 10d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $19 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,940.17 · official $1,940.17 (match) · 100 history records