Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:16:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x697f…e44e sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$916 (-20%) realized −$848 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$206
14 days−$206
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$659
other 14% −$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.7% -24.6% 50% 50% -24.8%
≤30d 10 -19.7% -27.3% 50% 50% -36.2%
≤90d 51 -13.6% -21.8% 53% 49% -29.1%
all 52 -13.3% -21.6% 54% 48% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 48% -29.1%
10% -29.1% 42% -35.9%
15% -35.9% 33% -42.1%
20% -42.2% 21% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$88 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$848
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage297d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 68¢ 22¢ $100 $32 −$68 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $142 +$155 +109%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $249 −$246 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $284 −$280 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $334 +$245 +73%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $115 +$20 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $199 −$196 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $91 −$89 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 +$23 +79%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $122 −$116 -95%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $95 −$90 -95%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $100 −$95 -95%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 23 $49 −$47 -95%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $176 −$167 -95%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $39 +$9 +24%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $23 +$37 +159%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $52 +$11 +21%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $32 +$15 +48%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $39 −$39 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $39 −$38 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $68 +$31 +46%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 22 $23 +$36 +156%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 22 $47 +$25 +52%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $250 −$123 -49%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 22 $40 +$19 +46%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) May 22 $37 +$9 +26%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $54 +$14 +26%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $35 −$33 -95%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $26 −$20 -74%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $120 −$66 -55%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $159 +$96 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championship May 21 $89 +$8 +9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $83 +$30 +36%
Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever May 21 $150 +$22 +15%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 20 $63 +$20 +32%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 20 $68 −$65 -95%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 20 $71 +$2 +2%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $76 +$36 +48%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $111 +$99 +89%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs. XG May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs. Yakult Brothers May 20 $6 −$3 -45%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $106 +$39 +37%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $66 +$81 +124%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $61 +$35 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 68¢ $101 23m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $298 29m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 47¢ $142 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 17¢ $51 12h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $198 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $284 14h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $579 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 58¢ $101 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 56¢ $233 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $135 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 96¢ $70 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 72¢ $45 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 34¢ $30 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 68¢ $71 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $199 14d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $91 28d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $38 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 61¢ $53 28d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $30 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 28d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 54¢ $122 35d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 56¢ $95 35d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 56¢ $100 35d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $105 35d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $49 35d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 51¢ $19 35d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 32¢ $27 35d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 72¢ $111 35d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $48 35d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 74¢ $39 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.35 · official $53.68 · 113 history records