Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x697e…c4df sports 590 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$334 (-1%) realized −$334 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%284W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$84
14 days+$112
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$435
other 5% +$20
world 0% −$32
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.2% -4.9% 60% 53% +9.6%
≤30d 91 +4.1% -5.9% 44% 37% -6.2%
≤90d 178 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 37% -12.9%
all 585 -1.3% -10.7% 49% 41% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 41% -10.9%
10% -19.3% 28% -19.4%
15% -27.1% 23% -27.2%
20% -34.2% 14% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses284 / 301
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions4
Markets (closed)585 / 590
History coverage230d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 585 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Panama 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $63 +$5 +7%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$4 -79%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $7 −$1 -20%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $11 −$3 -27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$6 -55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $60 +$27 +45%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $13 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $118 +$16 +14%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $35 +$15 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $23 +$4 +19%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$4 +81%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $30 +$70 +238%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $12 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $11 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $25 −$14 -56%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $42 −$17 -41%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -70%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$3 -44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $6 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 −$3 -9%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$35 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 +$21 +71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$33 -54%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$22 -32%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 −$18 -28%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $23 +$7 +29%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$13 +180%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 +$59 +141%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $66 −$18 -28%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $97 −$33 -34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $74 +$29 +38%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $43 −$9 -22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $115 +$23 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$5 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS $0 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS $1 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS $0 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL DK 96¢ $67 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY DK 88¢ $62 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 34¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $4 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $11 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $12 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL No $1 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 16¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Norway 54¢ $5 16h
France leading at halftime? SELL No 42¢ $8 16h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 66¢ $7 22h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $11 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $10 31h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 32h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Sc BUY 13¢ $5 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 87¢ $87 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 64¢ $5 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 64¢ $8 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $60 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 13¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.50 · official $29.50 (match) · 1660 history records